yep, that's a good point.
there are plenty of scenarios.
but we do know from Santos presentation that:
- they needed funds
- they are changing direction/ emphasis of their business to focus on gas
- they have bucketloads of expertise
- they ARE now going for growth (whereas before it was a case of survival by the sounds of it)
- they have specifically identified 5 areas/regions where they intend to expand exploration and production - and Amadeus was specifically noted
- they specifically mentioned a pipeline from Alice area to Moomba
- they would not have done that unless it was under very serious consideration
- that Moomba processing plant in Cooper Basin, I am sure I read somewhere that its replacement value is like $10 Billion ?? (it was a huge figure whatever it was)
- that Moomba plant could process and distribute Amadeus gas throughout the region of S/E Aust where it is desperately needed
- prices of gas are universally predicted to increase in the next few years, and will be in demand even if Aust moves towards renewables
- Govts around Aust have finally twigged that they need the gas!!
Santos might be able to build the pipeline from Alice area to Moomba and transport the gas at a more competitive price than Jemena can transport it to Wallumbilla Qld.
I reckon Santos has already done the sums, that's why they included it in presentation.
SO just maybe, here is where RC is going ???!!!
The MB proposal has started the re-structuring process.
Now Santos might be seeing its planning being interrupted by the MB proposal, or perhaps STO has the view that MB might send the CTP gas down the Jemena route, instead of down the Santos route to Moomba?
Santos will not want to see the CTP gas head somewhere else, because it might reduce the viability of its own commercial plans?
I hope that is the scenario - because a bit of competitive tension will work wonders for the SP !
cheers
CTP Price at posting:
17.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
