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VPC - Daily Discussion, page-659

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15/12/16

21:32

Post #: 21375074

Originally posted by rturve ↑

ok I have added a few scenarios with Saas growth of 30% , 50% , 75% & 100%. What I can now see is the market is currently giving us a PE multiple of 3.5 which is very low see link https://stockrow.com/CRM/competitors Salesforce has a PE of 243 . Looking at the data I would say to avoid another small CR we need to see SaaS growth above 50% or costs need to come down and at the moment is probably the main reason for the suppressed SP and a PE of only 3.5. Sustained Q on Q growth even at 30% should be rewarded with an increasing PE multiplier which I have guessed at but I think it is what the market would do . So the main focus for Rusty is to get that growth number for SaaS up above 50% without increasing cost . To be fair to him this is what he has been doing with the 4 pillars just how well he has been doing we will find out.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13 Column 14 Column 15 Column 16

1 Q SaaS Rev DD Rev Saas Growth Q on Q DD Growth Q on Q Revenue $ mil Cost $ mil Cash from CR Earnings per Q Earnings per Y Growth PE EV Cash MC SP

2 0.075 0.43 30% 20% 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.50 2.00 3.5 7.0 5.5 13 1.8

3 Jan-17 0.10 0.51 30% 20% 0.61 1.53 1.53 0.61 2.43 22% 3.75 9.1 4.0 13 1.9

4 Apr-17 0.13 0.61 30% 20% 0.74 1.56 1.56 0.74 2.96 48% 4 11.8 2.4 14 2.0

5 Jul-17 0.16 0.73 30% 20% 0.90 1.59 1.59 0.90 3.60 80% 4.25 15.3 0.8 16 2.3

6 Oct-17 0.21 0.88 30% 20% 1.10 1.62 1.62 1.10 4.38 119% 4.5 19.7 5.5 25 3.6

7 Jan-18 0.28 1.06 30% 20% 1.34 1.66 1.66 1.34 5.34 167% 5 26.7 3.8 31 4.4

8 Apr-18 0.36 1.27 30% 20% 1.63 1.69 1.69 1.63 6.52 226% 5.5 35.9 2.2 38 5.5

9 Jul-18 0.47 1.52 30% 20% 1.99 1.72 0.40 0.67 2.68 299% 15 40.2 0.4 41 5.9

10 Oct-18 0.61 1.83 30% 20% 2.44 1.76 0.00 0.68 2.73 388% 20 54.5 0.0 55 7.9

11

12 Q SaaS Rev DD Rev Saas Growth Q on Q DD Growth Q on Q Revenue $ mil Cost $ mil Cash from CR Earnings Earnings per Y Growth PE EV Cash MC SP

13 0.075 0.43 50% 20% 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.50 2.00 3.5 7.0 5.5 13 1.8

14 Jan-17 0.11 0.51 50% 20% 0.62 1.53 1.53 0.62 2.49 25% 4.5 11.2 4.0 15 2.2

15 Apr-17 0.17 0.61 50% 20% 0.78 1.56 1.56 0.78 3.12 56% 5.5 17.2 2.4 20 2.8

16 Jul-17 0.25 0.73 50% 20% 0.99 1.59 1.59 0.99 3.95 98% 6.5 25.7 0.8 26 3.8

17 Oct-17 0.38 0.88 50% 20% 1.26 1.62 1.62 1.26 5.04 152% 7.5 37.8 5.5 43 6.2

18 Jan-18 0.57 1.06 50% 20% 1.63 1.66 1.66 1.63 6.51 225% 8.5 55.3 3.8 59 8.5

19 Apr-18 0.85 1.27 50% 20% 2.12 1.69 1.69 2.12 8.49 325% 10 84.9 2.2 87 12.5

20 Jul-18 1.28 1.52 50% 20% 2.80 1.72 0.40 1.48 5.93 461% 20 118.5 0.4 119 17.1

21 Oct-18 1.92 1.83 50% 20% 3.75 1.76 0.00 1.99 7.97 650% 35 278.9 0.0 279 40.2

22

23 Q SaaS Rev DD Rev Saas Growth Q on Q DD Growth Q on Q Revenue $ mil Cost $ mil Cash from CR Earnings Earnings per Y Growth PE EV Cash MC SP

24 0.075 0.43 75% 20% 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.50 2.00 3.5 7.0 5.5 13 1.8

25 Jan-17 0.13 0.51 75% 20% 0.64 1.53 1.53 0.64 2.57 28% 5 12.8 4.0 17 2.4

26 Apr-17 0.23 0.61 75% 20% 0.84 1.56 1.56 0.84 3.37 68% 7 23.6 2.4 26 3.7

27 Jul-17 0.40 0.73 75% 20% 1.14 1.59 1.59 1.14 4.55 127% 10 45.5 0.8 46 6.7

28 Oct-17 0.70 0.88 75% 20% 1.58 1.62 0.80 0.76 3.04 217% 20 60.9 0.0 61 8.8

29 Jan-18 1.23 1.06 75% 20% 2.29 1.66 0.00 0.63 2.53 358% 30 75.9 0.0 76 10.9

30 Apr-18 2.15 1.27 75% 20% 3.42 1.69 0.00 1.73 6.94 585% 35 242.8 0.0 243 35.0

31 Jul-18 3.77 1.52 75% 20% 5.29 1.72 0.00 3.57 14.28 959% 40 571.2 0.0 571 82.2

32 Oct-18 6.60 1.83 75% 20% 8.42 1.76 0.00 6.67 26.67 1585% 45 1200.1 0.0 1200 172.8

33

34 Q SaaS Rev DD Rev Saas Growth Q on Q DD Growth Q on Q Revenue $ mil Cost $ mil Cash from CR Earnings Earnings per Y Growth PE EV Cash MC SP

35 0.075 0.43 100% 20% 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.50 2.00 3.5 7.0 5.5 13 1.8

36 Jan-17 0.15 0.51 100% 20% 0.66 1.53 1.53 0.66 2.64 32% 5 13.2 4.0 17 2.5

37 Apr-17 0.30 0.61 100% 20% 0.91 1.56 1.56 0.91 3.65 82% 7 25.5 2.4 28 4.0

38 Jul-17 0.60 0.73 100% 20% 1.33 1.59 1.59 1.33 5.34 167% 10 53.4 0.8 54 7.8

39 Oct-17 1.20 0.88 100% 20% 2.08 1.62 0.80 1.26 5.03 316% 20 100.6 0.0 101 14.5

40 Jan-18 2.40 1.06 100% 20% 3.46 1.66 0.00 1.80 7.21 592% 30 216.2 0.0 216 31.1

41 Apr-18 4.80 1.27 100% 20% 6.07 1.69 0.00 4.38 17.52 1114% 35 613.2 0.0 613 88.3

42 Jul-18 9.60 1.52 100% 20% 11.12 1.72 0.00 9.40 37.60 2125% 40 1504.0 0.0 1504 216.6

43 Oct-18 19.20 1.83 100% 20% 21.03 1.76 0.00 19.27 77.08 4105% 45 3468.6 0.0 3469 499.5

Expand

Cheers @rturve.

That looks better.

I think from memory the magic number for quarterly SaaS revenue for break even cash flow was $1m.

The tables show that a 30% QoQ growth rate won't get us there until Q1 2019. We really need to be hitting around 15-20% MoM imo to start gaining some proper traction.

Looking forward to the next quarterly - I'm guessing management will at least be providing seperate figures on SaaS vs DD revenues as in the last announcement to help us understand the progress better.

Cheers,
TT

VPC Price at posting: 1.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

0 Great analysis

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