Agree!
To mums and dads our there.... don't believe all the down ramping being blogged here.
Do your own research!
If anything you hear, concerns you or raises a red flag, ask for evidence to back up the claims being made.... and then do your own research.
Good source material is BAL's May 2016 Strategic Report, listen to the teleconference from 2/12 and read the 2016 Annual Report. All of these are available on BAL's investor website:
http://investors.bellamysorganic.com.au/asx-and-media-announcements
BAL have never (to the best of my knowledge) published financial FY17 forecasts. I've only ever seen forecasts made by non-BAL analysts (who are mostly making predictions for the share market).
And a last point, BAL is a global company with markets in three distinct regions: Australia, China and South East Asia (which are clearly broken down in BAL's annual reports).
BAL have been proactive in building their own direct sales into China (at this stage predominantly via e-commerce channels, but the real prizes will be to break into the Mums'n'Bubs brick and mortar store), which will not be captured in any local/domestic market share analyse. (The problem with only looking at local domestic market data, is that it is significantly skewed by the daigou trade, which is an almost unknown factor).
What you need to look for in any info released by BAL, is to know if any loss in the domestic market has been compensated for by growth in the China market.
