Thanks for your balanced and objective response. It's appreciated after reading some of the erroneous information, presented by what appears to be a screaming minority, which belongs in the rubbish basket. As its coming up to Christmas, and the drill rigs have stopped, I'll be having a break, so you may not hear from me for a couple of weeks.
My take on KAI is to wait until February - April and see if anything substantial starts to turn up. I'll be reviewing then. Right now there's a smallish gold deposit at Mt York which, as I've said previously, equates to a 10 cent share price according to my analysis - it may grow - we'll have to wait and see.
Roe Hill looks particularly interesting and if a substantial find is made it could open the financial door for KAI to put effort into exploring their major spodumene tenements in the Pilbara. The move to let Altura do the drilling for them at Wodinga East and take 25% of the winnings seems sensible when you consider the potential size of the deposits that may be unlocked elsewhere by using cash from this exercise.
At present, gold is bankable and is traded on a commodities market. Spodumene however is not, and still has a higher cost of processing when converting into lithium carbonate compared to the brines. The work Lithium Australia is conducting to lower the production costs could open up the door for spodumene production in Australia. Until that process is proven, spodumene remains slightly at risk in the long term as more brines come into production. Therefore an immediate rush into spodumene may not be justified. However post 2021 the demand is likely to increase exponentially from where it is now. What we've seen in the last 2 years is likely to pale into insignificance by 2021. So if someone that starts finding large Li deposits during 2018, they could be sitting pretty.
I therefore see KAI's potential being unlocked via a number of phases - find a gold deposit and derive capital from it - possibly in parallel find Li in Wodinga East and derive cash from that - then using that capital open up exploration in the major lithium tenements if the market appears to holding up and the lower cost processing route is proven viable. If Li fails to develop further in Australia (highly unlikely in my view), then KAI keeps the gold.
If my analysis is correct, this multi faceted, leap frog approach could turn into serious payola. It's high risk - but when isn't a small cap exploration company extremely high risk. If the board proceeds in this general direction at a reasonable pace, I'll retain my holdings.
In summary, I give a tick to my guess at KAI's strategy, but as I've previously said, I think their corporate governance needs a bit of a tidy up. They forged ahead with lithium announcements and rode the favourable reaction from the market. The lithium hype was at frenzy level last May and there was absolutely no reason for the share price to hit 12 cents - KAI had no holes in the ground to speak of. The flawed Macquarie Bank reports cooled the Lithium space just as KAI was going into a capital raising - I accept that was not KAI's fault. However, the amount of time given to investors to organise money transfers was not really acceptable and they should have been cognisant of the fact that small investors need time to arrange funds - I feel this would have contributed to the less than satisfactory capital raising. Having no website for a protracted period wouldn't really concern serious analysts who'd probably give it a thumbs up for saving money, however, it may have caused angst in the mums' and dads' area in the investor's grandstand. I also have an issue with many of these smaller caps just having mates of mates on the board - they're all accountants, or they're all geologists, etc - I would much prefer to see a set of balanced skills on any board. But I don't think that will ever change - that's the way I've always remembered them. Hence some of my previous comments about tidying up their act in the corporate governance area.
I'm treating KAI as a lottery ticket. If I lose everything, so be it. If it comes up a winner, I'll be a grinner.
All the best over Christmas and thanks for a sensible post.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
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1 | 1000000 | 1.0¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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13 | 3378057 | 0.009 |
21 | 4071390 | 0.008 |
3 | 1110000 | 0.007 |
7 | 7223888 | 0.006 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.012 | 7916162 | 5 |
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