BAL price target $12, page-10

A thumb up from me for the effort and honesty that you showed in your post. If only HotCopper has more posters like you who are willing to share stories of winners as well as losers, then everybody will benefit from learning from each other's mistakes and experiences.

I agree with some of your points. I do however have one question.

What makes January and February special months, ie peak sales period? I can't imagine babies drinking more milk simply because it's January or February.

As for the likelihood of BAL recovering, this is something that I personally can't predict accurately.

Everything depends on the next announcement that they will make regarding the outcome of their negotiations with their suppliers.

I can envisage a scenario where BAL survives this obstacle as much as I can imagine another scenario where BAL goes under.

The problem with your argument regarding it's in the best interest of BAL's suppliers' interest to keep supporting BAL, is the fact that these suppliers, in their other capacity, are also BAL's competitors. Therefore, it's also possible that they will use this opportunity to suffer short term pain in order to take out a major competitor.

When BAL resumes trading, I will probably do nothing and watch from the sideline, and try to learn something from this debacle.

Happy to be corrected if there's any hole in my reasoning.