BAL price target $12, page-33

Meh most of your points I agree with. Pretty much the scenario is that if bal can get positive eps growth/ revenue growth in fy18/19 then the stock should slowly recover. This recovery story will be driven by future demand and the incompetence of management - the point that people seem to be missing - the thing that most retail investors underplay and a decent reason instos outperform them. Who was Laura before Bellamys? Just an accountant at KPMG LOL. Few years later she is managing a $1bn company with reluctance to show transparency and other things I can't discuss due to confidentiality.

Anyways plug in the numbers into a DCF and you will get a $4-$6 target if you assume 0% future growth past fy17 - this is what most analysts are currently doing fyi. At this point, it's hard to argue with them given A2s /aptamils complete dominance in the market and bals losing market share + inventory mistakes.

Also anyone who didn't know, this whole fiasco mainly occurred due to the bal management front ending fy16 revenues by over ordering from suppliers to get a better figure for fy16. This is the sign of an incompetent and inexperienced management that will do what it takes to get their STIs met. This led to the excess inventory in fy17 which meant lower prices and finally the daigou trade getting cut out.