I'd still like to know your definition of a "reversal"? I don't recall seeing that above. I've already explained mine in detail some days ago, all the characteristics.
The dollar will fluctuate (see Chart - only one below). One night on DOW is hardly significant. Yes, there is tax-loss selling every year, just as there there is also "window dressing" (buying the better performers to look good on the EOY statements). This is perfectly normal (seasonal).
Oversold? Instruments can be oversold / overbought for a long time (that is normally a TA tool , unless you are using another definition (which I don't use...no TA tools). BTW...SP500 looks "overbought" it cos its reflecting an up trend. Vice versa for gold. The concept has no meaning for me. If people got their BUY / SELL signals from such mechanical oscillators (RSI, CCI, DMI etc..) ...they'd have been way out of whack
"How can a chart predict human behaviour?" They reflect the aggregate action of *all* participants in the markets, and can be read, used as a forecasting tool with statistical significance. If you make the effort, can even see how the Market Makers
manipulate operate (even more complex to decipher, so next to none try and do this.).
It's an interminable debate (FA vs Charts), and don't want to revisit it. I started a Charts thread...people dump everything in this thread, I don't know why.
I've been calling this for some months now on this Forum, and others , and - I don't mean to boast - and have been pretty accurate since Aug, commencing with the signals of 5 successively lower peaks...then more Shiite happened (Oct 4 - if folks wanted more confirmation, a huge smack down on zero news - the final signal, if required...). I sold out of gold months ago - and have even Posted Confirm for the doubters, who then gave me Shiite...(not at the highs...unlike some , I can't bich the tops - or the bottoms - no-one can.... I was 100% in ASX listed gold stocks, very concentrated...to the max.).
Then seven successive weeks of lower closes...what else is needed? Still ppl kept buying, seeing "bargains", trying to "pick the bottom" the ultimate folly...
Gold friendly events like Brexit t and Trump didn't help..re Trump...in fact, the reverse....markets now in "risk-on".
Also look at trend of USD (14 year high), US equities (near record highs), and rotation from Bonds to stocks, indicating growth expectations under a new Administration Jan 20 (that;s largely why he was 'elected), and higher inflation and rates (as a result of expected GDP growth, lesser Debt to GDP ratio, greater capacity to service debt (many here always carrying on about debt)).
I've said all this before.
The FA - with which I am familiar as a trained political economist (who also worked on Wall St, 25 years (but in IT, for major banks, but
not as a banker) confirms the charts (not vice versa).
The global markets, all of them... (as depicted by Charts...numbers..data...) are all in sync...all of them, even gold (as a negative indicator), and that sync is expectation of a renewal of US Econ Growth a lost decade, and by implication, other dependent nations also:
DXY - - WEEKLY - I don't see it "weakening"..... How do you see it weakening (of course it will fluctuate...what doesn't?). Looks strong to me..perhaps pausing at Resistance...not weakening...
