Ann: Update on activities, page-3

Sounds like they have been on the 'go slow' for the last couple of months with the uncertainty regarding global phosphate prices. The signs of a turnaround are emerging, and the good news  is that when they do, Avenira will be able to take advantage with the recent operational improvements at the Gadde Bissik SMP.

Another article below pointing to a recovery in prices, with more demand expected out of the US and India, and China set to limit supply by cutting production rates.

Viewpoint: US phosphate demand set for spring revival
27 Dec 2016, 11.10 pm GMT

Houston, 28 December (Argus) — Limited US phosphate inventories after a strong fall season could set the stage for a recovery from multi-year lows ahead of the 2017 planting season.

US phosphate demand could be strong this spring after increased exports and a strong fall application period combined to clear out domestic warehouse bins and limit winter carryover inventory.

A 32pc year-over-year increase in US phosphate exports during the fertilizer year-to-date July-October, and a 12pc decline in US DAP/MAP production from July-September, have left closing stocks heading in to October below 17-year lows, according to the Fertilizer Institute (TFI).

The arrival of a confirmed 354,000t of import DAP/MAP from August-October limited upward price movement.

Nola DAP barge prices slipped into a steady decline since peaking in August, dropping by $34/st to a seven-year low near $290/st fob Nola. But prices now show signs of stabilizing as sellers have yet to accept bids in the $280s/st fob Nola and forward paper prices show slight appreciation. Forward prices have been largely range bound because of the estimated 170,000t of import tonnage expected to arrive in late December and early January.

The outlook for domestic phosphate usage in 2017 is slightly mixed as increased net cash farm income for corn and soybean growers is partially offset by a drop in total planted acres.

The record high yields from the 2016 corn and soybean harvests helped improve farmer income for the year by offsetting the low selling price on both crops. As a result, more farmers should be financially secure enough to purchase the nutrients needed to replenish the soil.

Total domestic fertilizer usage may take a small step backward in 2017 because of an expected drop in corn acreage, but phosphate demand could be shielded by an expected 2mn-acre rise in projected soybean area, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Mosaic's phosphate production has been steadily increasing since the end of its 400,000t curtailment in the first quarter of 2016. As of the end of the third quarter, production had gone from 75pc (2.2mn t/quarter) to 84pc (2.5mn t/quarter), with the company's fourth quarter guidance calling for production to climb to 85pc of capacity. Mosaic forecast that global phosphate shipments in 2017 will climb to a record high 68mn t, with increased shipments to both Latin America and Oceania.

Domestic producers could also receive price support from international market activity limiting US imports early in 2017. The global phosphates market is watching China, where producers are set to consider a proposed curtailment plan that could cut production rates by up to 50pc because of low prices. The Indian government's decision to roll over the nutrient-based subsidy has already stimulated demand within the country. The reemergence of Indian demand combined with limited Chinese output could set the stage for higher global prices.