Again this is just my opinion but I am writing this post in a genuine effort to engender focus on achieving the best possible value for our respective share portfolios.
Please feel free to comment on pros and cons and keep up the good work of digging up good information.
I put a very simple question to Cottee at the Sydney roadshow.
“What is the takeover risk and mitigation?”
RC looked me in the eye and used words to the effect that the “Mitigation” was the complexity of the “3 Dimensional chess game”.
I used software that can run hundreds of thousands of combinations of risks and opportunities as part of what I did for a living before I retired.
Personally I always found that the hardest thing was to maintain forward focus on the Risk/Mitigation/opportunity triangle.
Clearly we need to remember past lessons from the CTP.
I have spent a lot of time identifying the possible opportunities for CTP to make sure my investment was not “Strategically cornered” in which case I would have been be wise to reduce my exposure to CTP.
The opposite emerged very quickly and Cottee’s chessboard comment really struck a chord.
Starting with the NGP I established at an early stage that it was going to go ahead I was surprised at how many options that it opened up for CTP.
In my earlier posts I started to talk of the East coast Gas Supply Chain as being ripe for a Macro Strategy and associated rationalisation and am not surprised at what is happening now.
I have attempted to convince industry journalists to focus on this and have been particularly impressed with some of the recent editorials especially those in the FIN Review. (Well worth a subscription).
I admit to being a bit cranky with HC posts that focused backward because it is very easy to become distracted from clear thinking forward vision.
My concern was that the share price would be “Jawboned” down which would increase the takeover risk and reduce CTP options by curtailing the ability to raise capital.
There are some very significant CTP strategic developments and opportunities that are now starting to emerge from the fog but I think it would be unwise to broadcast them them at this stage.
My interest is focused on my own investment return which will share the fortunes of longsuffering CTP investors and I personally don’t want to give intelligence to the opposition or takeover aspirants.
Some HC posters are starting to think in in the “Forward opportunity”, mindset and I reckon that this is what it all about. Good Work.
Expect the unexpected though and things could develop very quickly!
I posted on Northern China changing power generation over to gas but didn’t expect them to be out here a few weeks later offering us a gas fired base load power station!
I have faith that the CTP team are well and truly across these and more.
Let’s face it none of us really have any idea of the negotiations that CTP are conducting but what I have found is that there are so many chess pieces in this 3D chess game that there are so combinations that the outcome even 3 moves out is almost impossible to even guess.
I am not surprised that we did not have a result before Christmas.
Notwithstanding just a short list…
The annual report and the going concern component of this report still stands.
We have a quarterly report due out soon (Last years out on 29 Jan)… should be interesting!
The pipeline capacity & construction schedule are not a problem.
The East Coast Gas market supply issues still stand and the GSA’s will happen in good time.
In no time we will be able to look forward to gas flowing down the NGP in less than 12 months.
We look like we have a staunch phalanx of feisty shareholders (Shareholders Association) that will I hope fight tooth and nail to get us to the point that where we can see some real value for our shares.
Sadly it took MAC to jolt the market into realising that 10C for CTP was way too low.
My guess is that if CTP survives say the next 15 weeks or so, that shareholders will really start smell money & increasingly dig in.
Going forward the large number of opportunities on the respective Corporate chess boards increases the probability that a combination of large/small events could occur that would result in a sudden increase in the CTP share price.
This could come like a bolt from the blue!
There appears to be a much lower probability of the reverse happening on the downside.
That is why having averaged well below the 20C mark I am not game to sell or start trading because the risk appears to be too high.
I must emphasise that I am in the fortunate position of being able to risk my stake in CTP.
Now the foregoing is just my thinking and I wish I could express it more succinctly.
I genuinely hope that it will help turn our combined “Forward opportunity radar”, onto maximum gain.
Best Regards to all
OGP
CTP Price at posting:
19.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)