It doesn't matter to me who is right or wrong. This is no game. What matters to me is that I make money to pay bills because I trade full-time and have been for several years now and everybody makes mistakes, including you and me.
I do not discount bearish sentiment even as Chinese exports look like they are slowing, as Red Dog shipments still present a risk to the downside over the next few weeks, especially while Chinese buyers are out of the market. So there may be further sell-offs but no-one knows when those shipments are coming in. At any rate it is a short-term event, which could be balanced out by a reduction in Chinese exports...ZFX interim result, zinc consumption from the other 70% of the world (excluding China) etc etc..
Overall, the next two months through to April do look more bullish than bearish. I was actually bearish until last Thurdsay for all of Dec and Jan. Unluckily though I got hit by a hedge fund headline that could of easily have had problems going long on oil, gold or whatever and a Port Pirie blast yesterday.
Those aside zinc has absorbed a big rise in exports from China and Red Dog and stocks have failed to re-build above 100,000t. That is what traders see and that is what changes market sentiment.
Furthermore the clue to going short or long is too keep a close eye on Singapore warehouse levels. In two years of trading zinc and ZFX I have found that information critical but again the markets take a few days to 'wake up' to the changes.
If you don't know it you can find it here:
http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx
Click on the magnifying glass to see zinc warehouses and keep a excel sheet or whatever to record the levels of ins and outs.
Happy puntings.
JH
ZFX
zinifex limited
