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Ece411

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10/01/17

15:56

Post #: 21797381
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Originally posted by obladiblada01 ↑

I am analysing the trend based on the observable (lagging) evidence. It's after all, all I have . On the JPYUSD - Gold relationship, I can see where Seth is coming from. He has noticed divergences between gold and the currency. If we look at smaller scale 10/20 EMA trend of the JPY/AUD, both have curved up recently, and that could be interpreted as a bullish change in nature.

View attachment 404828

He may have decided to act as a first mover on that signal (and his correlation theory), and if he is correct, and the smaller timeframe change becomes a larger timeframe trend, and gold diverges upwards, then Seth will make a lot of money, and should be commended for having the taken the risk going long gold.

Others who subscribe to the JPYUSD - Gold relationship theory may look at the broader picture 50/200MA and say "well the broader trend is still down, I won't get involved in that yet, its just a counter trend rally", and miss the cream. They may be late to the party and kick themselves.

View attachment 404831

And maybe reality will land somewhere between a 10 EMA and a 200 MA! I would personally prefer to enter long if the 50 and 200 MA's were both turned up with the 50 above the 200, and I might enter on a pull back as the 10 and 20 both turned up , or crossed. But then again...I missed the cream of the 2016 bullish change in gold. But then again, I used leverage to make up for that because I felt more comfortable buying more gold with the trend behind me

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Very interesting discussion - thanks
I noitced that gold was bouncing off the 20 day MA as it proceeded bullishly through the 1160s and 1170s.... Just FYI anyway

cheers

ece

ece
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0 Great analysis

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gold, page-20492

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