I don't think it's oversold. There's hardly any volume.
BEN has the highest PE of any of the banks. I previously made money shorting BOQ at their last results. The issue is that the regionals tend to have a much higher private investor base on their books. They are chasing yield and also often buy into local plays.
There's a lot to all of this but in short comparing Provident to HSBC or Lloyds is like comaparing Zara to Wesfarmers. Provident is unsecured, high margin and high loss business. Unsecured They benefit from rising economy lower rates (cost of funds). major Banks in Europe have lower NIM, larger secured exposures and much higher legacy investment in high cost op models. Plus been subject to various reg issues.
Plus Keystart is a dog. That will become clear in the fullness of time.
The geographies BEN is operating in aren't doing too well either. Let's see what that their results look like but my experience is these regionals just don't don't have the scale to compete with the majors and
by default they have much higher cost to to serve. They may also get their fingers burnt dabbling in some of the higher risk product space such as equity release and personal lending as the consumer becomes more stretched with uptick in interest rates.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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