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Guessing the 2017 guidance, page-27

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The German

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20/01/17

08:19

Post #: 22018331
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Originally posted by MagicSeven ↑

To all the investors and interested ones in tgs,

Now you can imagine why I am such a critical investor about tgs.. Just look on my calculation, where you can see a matrix table for different copper production scenarios (27, 30, 32,5kt), with diff. sales prices (2.35, 2.40, 2.55/lb) and a "cautious" expected aisc of total 1.73 (incl. inefficiency of production because of incidents, wet season, pads, etc...)

So if you look on the cashflow statement 2017 (last line on pdf) we have a scenario of 32.5kt with an avg. sales of 2.55 and aisc of 1.73. This would just generate a net cash of 34.5mn.

As soon as possible (asap, within a year) we have to pay min. 1/7 of our debts (because debts should be paid asap when cp is on its high/est lvl/s!) of 180.5mn (w/o drc bank!). Now this would mean that we should pay back loans of >26mn (just avg. of total outst. loan) end of 2017 beg. 2018!

But as you can see in my best case model we just generate 34.5mn.. and we need also cash to expand our production further to at least 50kt/year (as tiger already mentioned some times ago!)! And we also maybe need a "left" cash to initialise a beginning cobalt production!

So just with the best case scenario (based on my calculation!) we are able to meet those results!

Hopefully tgs is able to manage a min. of 27kt production with a flat aisc rate ~1.50, which would generate a much more positive cashflow (~38mn, bef. payback of debt!)

click here for tgs-guidance 2017 - my personal view

Ps. Cashflow = after operating, financing costs..

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M7
Very nice ! But currently no one speaks of 50kilo tons.
Then prefer the cobalt production.

TG

TGS Price at posting: 3.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Guessing the 2017 guidance, page-27

Top Stories

Cokal upgrades infrastructure for BBM ramp-up in Indonesia

BCI reaches close of funding facility for salt-first part of Mardie project

Buxton projects new graphite province discovery at WA Narryer play

Recce eyes Indonesia for novel anti-infective as Indo-Aus ties grow stronger

White Cliff jumps 24% on 'bonanza grade' copper rock chips at Rae project, Canada

Week 40 Wrap: China's nonsensical stimmy hype wanes (shocking!); HotCopper's picks; oil & inflation

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

Solstice Minerals to ramp up drilling campaign at Yarri Gold Project

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Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

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