pm would lose seat in bennelong: poll

the age newspaper

imo... what a pi sser.



PM would lose seat in Bennelong: poll



February 19, 2007 - 9:39AM


If a federal election was held today, Prime Minister John Howard would lose his own seat, a new poll has found.

Mr Howard holds the Sydney seat of Bennelong, traditionally a safe-Liberal seat. But it seems the times are changing.

Roy Morgan Research and Crikey.com.au held a telephone poll of almost 400 Bennelong voters and found 55 per cent supported Labor on a two-party preferred basis.

And 49 per cent said Kevin Rudd would be a better prime minister than Mr Howard, who scored 47 per cent.

Crikey political editor Christian Kerr said the change could be put down to a change of boundaries for the electorate.

"A redistribution of the electoral boundaries in NSW last year cut John Howard's margin down to just four per cent," Mr Kerr said in a statement on Monday.

He said demography also could be working against the prime minister.

"Bennelong has seen a rapid influx of new, mostly Asian, migrants in the past decade.

"Some observers say these new electors are more likely to vote Labor."

The poll also showed that 40 per cent of Bennelong voters would give their first preference to Mr Howard - down 9.9 per cent since the last election.

Forty-one per cent said they would cast a primary vote for Labor - up 12.6 per cent since 2004.

Mr Kerr said the poll confirmed that Bennelong would be a front line seat in this year's federal election.

But, he said, there was one small silver lining for Mr Howard - 46 per cent of voters in Bennelong still think the coalition will win the next federal election - and the prime minister can choose when to hold it.