Limited future upside?
I felt that after a successful restructuring of Pdn (that did not include a share consolidation), I could envision a shareprice back towards $1 perhaps within a year provided the uranium price continued to strengthen over time.
Now that that a share consolidation is likely, I struggle to see anywhere near the same appreciation.
That is, with a sp of A$0.05, after a restructuring, I could envision a re-rate to $0.20 - $0.30 initially, and a possible target of A$1 within 1 year - that is a 20 xs increase.
After consolidation, sp likely to be A$0.50. So, to achieve comparable rises, the initial re-rate would need to be $2.00 - $3.00, and the one year target would need to be A$10.00. As much as I would like to see this happen, I find it very hard to envision this at least in the next couple of years. I think the shareprice will improve over time, but, only modestly compared to what it could have been without consolidation.
Of course, it is critical any deal made ensures the continued survival of Pdn.
But, I feel shareholders are paying a very high price for this – our shares are effectively valued at A$0.05, and if that’s not bad enough we lose 90 % of our shares.
It is a great pity Pdn could not announce a similar deal as this, say 6 months ago (before 20 July 2016 - when Alex made his first infamous announcement that set the rot in). A third of the shares (2b) could have been issued at about $0.15 (a discount to the sp at the time of around $0.20) to raise the necessary A$300m. This would have given 3.7b shares on issue – if a share split was then seen as necessary, it could have been done less brutally – say 2 for 1.
Interestingly, Deep Yellow just last week, announced intentions of a share consolidation of 20 for 1.
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