An alternate view
Overnight, the US market, led by Apple has finally turned modestly green along with Europe and Japan. Yellen has held steady on US interest rates and whilst this hasn't quite restored business as usual quite yet the wallet is out again for good value stocks.
Galaxy was oversold and shorted on the back of the market jitters but there has now been enough time for funds to digest the quarterly and a willingness to buy up fast now that the market mood has switched. In a sense they hadn't really stopped had they? - volume has been off the wall here and the real overview of the last couple of weeks is that the share price has shown signs of being reasonably resilient even in the face of a lot of market hyperventillation.
This GXY quarterly wasn't meant to be this exciting, falling in the last period before Galaxy earns money from shipments, but it had a few good surprises about progress on the next assets.
a) Sal de Vida being reorientated towards a double capacity plant - 50ktpa.
b) James Bay picking up extra tenements and DFS progress to be made in Q1
That's a strong start when we could reasonably have expected the entire focus to have been on Mt Cattlin's final commissioning stage. Suddenly it looks like the $1b company that it is, able to simultaneously advance projects on 3 different continents.
Far from being a "long squeeze" - the funds who are taking an interest now in Galaxy can line-wipe 1m shares without problem at any price point and that has shorters closing their positions in a hurry - and those who have been scared by the market dip re-entering.
If you are shorting Crash (as you recommended on your twitter) I'd personally recommend closing that. Unless you can back up your down-lines with some fundamental reason for Galaxy to be off the boil then it was always a temporary blip dip.
Material progress towards a SDV-making deal is expected in Q1. I'm predicting the estimated size of Shipment 2 to be another of Tse's conservative figures (same as last time). Then some news about JB and I think we'll be looking towards asking Canaccord to bump up their price target higher than 80c for a bit more headroom. An SDV deal by itself could see an enormous re-rate depending on the details of the deal. And a take over offer would create the mother of all gap-ups.
That's why shorts are day-trading. If they're caught out in the open on those kind of announcements....
But, as you say, do what you are comfortable with.
The rise of lithium, battery storage and EVs is front page news everywhere and Galaxy is on the front foot for 2017.
I don't think the share price at the end of 2017 will prove me wrong, and for those who are looking for the real gains (and CGT discounts) then that is all that matters.
ps
@SodaFizz - I thought we agreed we weren't going to hold hands in public.
