Hi Dmasonic,
It depends of what each individual wants to classify as a lengthy time. The development of the EIS for the refinery has not started as of yet, submission will come after the first draft has been developed. It will start as soon as the EIS for the Mt Peake mine has been submitted as per TNG's announcements on these matters. I have included a table below for ease of reference and to make the timelines transparent.
View attachment 453002
It was three years ago next month that the Terms of Reference for the Mt Peake Mine were provided, and two years after this the first submission of the EIS was provided to the NTEPA. Given the EIS has not started for the refinery, but say they start next month once submission of the supplementary EIS is submitted, it should take under two years for the refinery EIS development and submission. There are always comments from the reviewers, so a realistic timeline to submit the supplementary EIS answering all comments is 3 years from start to final sign-off.
To some this may seem lengthy, and to others it is bang on their estimates. But this is a mega-project and is being treated as such. Three years is not a long time to me, to others in for a quick trade it may not suit. I know for most readers on HotCopper, TNG is their end-game, the life changing investment. To these readers I ask, how long would you wait for a 60 x bagger? How many day-trades would you have to buy and sell, while winning every time, would you have to trade to come out at the same amount as what the end increase in TNG will be. Just have patience, things will happen in good time.
So hang in there, the EIS for the refinery will be submitted in 2019, and final sign-off will occur late 2019 or 2020. Remember, the EIS for the refinery will still be required to be comprehensive due to the chemicals used, tailings storage etc.
This brings me to construction timelines:
Mining construction can occur once financing of the mine (not refinery, this will be done by SMS separately) is completed. Financing of the mine I remain optimistic will occur in 2018. As soon as this occurs construction will start. This is penciled in to go for 2 years. I don't believe they will start actual mining of product for stockpiling until the refinery is completed due to operating expenditure costs without a sales stream.
- 2020 mine construction competed.
Refinery - EIS final sign off in 2020 but lets be optimistic and say 2nd half 2019, construction completion 18 months after this, with backing of SMS brokered finance.
- final refinery construction 2021 completed
Dividends will be paid after debt payback, and should occur within 5 years of mining. So in 2026, dividends of
twice the amount of what you buy shares for today, should be paid to you for the next 18 years + (not including TIVAN wildcard).
This is not a trading stock, this is a buy hold stock.
I understand that some may think my timelines are long, and I will accept constructive criticism if you highlight the sections where we can pull back the timelines
Wanderdog
