( Lithium) Bubble (?) and strategy
Collated by xela.hc TraderGT Date:05/03/16 Time:14:50:14 Post #:17196795 forrestfield said: ↑ @heraclitus Well, only time will tell I guess... but when stocks do make 150% plus on making a project acquisition along with a market cap of almost 13m with 200k Cash in the bank... I started to feel nervous... as IMO the trend at this stage normally have reached to the middle of the spike... and from middle it takes only 3-4 months to reach to the top... So I would say... plenty of money yet to be made but is this bubble worth making 15m market caps for simple project acquisition with 300m plus market caps for a decent size resource? I am not sure to be honest... so sounds just like a bubble to me... By saying this, I think lithium will make heaps of money in coming 3 months... Perhaps crazy gains will be made... so we'll worth investing now... Cheers
Lithium still is in process of becoming a bubble IMO Why? Creating a bubble is all about it having the x factor and the unknowns.....which lends to an greed driven top. Dot.com bubble always comes to mind, no one knew what those companies told become and how big....we now know and like most bubbles some companies prosper but most fail in the puff. Lithium market has this. How much lithium will the world need? In 3, 5, 10 years who knows. Tesla already claim to need the worlds supply. How many product will require lithium ION batteries in the short, medium and long term. When will supply exceed demand......will we have a shortage.....will the price of lithium spike... The lithium price could be anywhere in 1, 3, 5 years. Anyways unknowns can lead to crazy valuations as people only see blue sky potential
.moesoeloe Date:05/03/16 Time:15:02:53 Post #:17196848 forrestfield said: ↑ Asx is resource driven while Americans are more tech and other plays... for example, FINTECH plays there without any revenue generating businesses are making 500m plus market caps... and some with just generating revenues and not being profitable have market caps larger than billion... While the companies in the same sector generating profits have market caps closer to 100m and that is AU $ So what I am trying to say... investors and money flow is AU is much different as compared to US... I agree with the rest though... by saying this, it does not mean we should not make money participating in bubbles... just need a better exit strategy that's all... Cheers
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Yes true... Canada markets are resource driven as well so would be good to see how their lithium plays have been trading... I doubt as crazy as on our markets... Personally my strategy would be aiming to free carry asap. Then I will be able to sleep better lol Let's hope the bubble lasts a while.. Unlike the milk bubble forrestfield.
Date:05/03/16
Time:15:12:50
Post #:17196894 Good strategy I would say... However, how we define free carry would be interesting? Do you define it as the total profits generated from all the trades within the sector? Or do you consider individual trades? I personally don't like the idea of free carried... I think the profits generated from a certain trade or trades do become my own money... and the lost profits are as bad as losing my own capital... Perhaps It's harder for me to generate them initially or perhaps others are better than me spotting more winners? I am not sure but if free carry means that I can afford to lose generated profits from a certain trade, I would rather be careful.... however, if it means to say THAT I have locked in certain percentage of profits and I am now doing risk stratification I would take it... still call it something else... Just like the concept of bottom draw... I have fundamental differences with it lol But you are right... let's make money with keeping our eyes and ears open along with other senses lol strauss
Date: 05/03/16
Time: 17:37:28 Post #: 17197541 moesoeloe said: ↑ I'm talking about specs not a2m or bal... Look at all the milk stocks that were flying during the milk bubble.. They are all pretty much half the share price now.. CCF BFC another starting with A (forgot ticker) and that other silly shell that got to $40m market cap Lithium juniors are now undergoing a similar process.. But this one may last a bit longer imo
Click to expand... I understand what you are trying to say but you are using a very bad example with dairy specs to do it Dairy/Infant formula requires large cap ex to get off the ground Exploration does not A spec lithium stock can raise a few hundred grand and go off in search of the next big Lithium deposit A spec dairy play can't raise a few hundred grand and go off in search of a herd of cattle to milk The dairy plays don't have an exploration phase, just a production phase moesoeloe
Date:05/03/16
Time:17:50:28
Post #:17197594 Yes but the issue here is lithium plays are hitting $30m market caps now (MCT) without any drill results. DKO another one at around $20m without any results.. All they have is land near a major resource. Overvalued based on hype and greed.. Signs of the bubble beginning in the spec end of lithium. There are gold explorers with multi million ounce resources trading cheaper than some of these lithium plays that don't even have drill results lol TraderGT
Date:05/03/16
Time:20:36:42 Post #:17198228 Moe there are some gold explorers with multi million ounce resources trading cheaper as there cost of production is too high! Refer to my above regarding bubbles and lithium too many unknowns PLS MC over 300mil.....if lithium price spikes it could be worth 1 billion? The market is always forward thinking hence why some of these spec explorers are valued at where they are. Its the market that determines value......if you think its over valued then dont buy.....with specs its all about risk/reward and these stocks have a high reward potential thats why the market values them higher. Is it a bubble? Time will tell........ But for lithium producers they could be in for a great 5 to 10 years if demand exceeds supply mouse
Date:06/03/16 Time:11:52:21 Post #:17199957 Lithium-ion batteries are backed by the big company's that use them... Samsung, Panasonic, Tesla to name a few are or do have mega factories and mega dollars in Lit-ion batteries. So it's say to say that lithium is staying for a long time. That is not to say batteries will always be made of Lithium, heck i have even read sand batteries is looking promising but in till the these big company's change direction my beat is on Lithium long term. Follow the money... In-regards to miners and who to pick what will go bunta and all that. Again follow the money. If company x is getting sophis and insto support then you can safely bet that they will have better odds of making it from explorer to miner. There are some real wealthy people in Australia who would are betting and backing on few of the ASX listed Lithium plays...They are not looking for pip's, they are looking for the big pay day. Don't want to be seen as a ramper so i won't name names, but company x issued big amount of shares for half the price it's trading at now. There is a strong reason it has not fallen back... Not all these penny hopefuls will see mining and i would not get side tracked from the more established players just because a penny hopeful has run 100% in a day. There is big dollars to be made from investing in Lithium listed co's... Follow the money... Insto and sophi support is the smoke signal. In fact that would apply to all mining play's. Cash is king. The average 12 month return on Lithium play's has been 500% and not sold down. Lithium spot price has doubled in 6 years and projected to double again in 6 years..think long term, follow the cash. All IMO
