Half Year Result

Well, we should be two weeks away from RFT's half year results. Anyone want to make a prediction?

Here are their last four half years for revenue and NPAT:

$2.68m, $116k
$3.92m, $12k
$3.79m, $572k
$4.67m, $657k

20% revenue CAGR, 78% NPAT CAGR over that time. Trading on a $30m market cap, RFT would likely need to generate $1.5m NPAT in FY17 to remain on a reasonable 25x earnings. Given recent growth, that would appear to be easily achievable.

From what we have been told/researched growth should remain strong, the biggest indication of that for me is the commitment to increasing manufacturing capacity and the drive for growth in the US through Unipower.

So for me, I'll hope for something like this:

$5m revenue
55% gross margin
$2.75m gross profit
$1.75m overheads
$1m NPAT

Biggest question would be whether there is a seasonality to revenue (1H last year was less than 2H prior year) and whether R&D has normalised around $1.2m. I've allowed for a bit of overhead growth, likely a few new employees have been put on. I think gross margins have stabilised around the 55% level.

Obviously if RFT can report $1m NPAT in two weeks time it would be an amazing result, but at current growth rates and margins, it is definitely possible.