I don't think the science is imacting the price much at this stage...look at the recent pii update, which did contain some new info on the science , price went up down and is back to where it was at a point soon before the update.
I dont think markets efficient...look at price swings of 10% in one week on no news etc
For value i assume sp for a comercial success. ..say $16 and say 80c if a p3 fails...then for these assumtions to be a fair bet at these prices need a 1 in 20 chance of success. There a 3 p3 but more time and money will be needed to get a commercial success
BP Update - RA, page-23
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