predict the wednesday average price, page-9

I know ABN Amro had a price target of $0.75 on AVX as of February 2007. However, at the time this was calculated on a 30% chance of commercialisation.

Given the great strike rate of Phase III trials making it through to the market I think you could assume that this will be lifted substantially following these results (they have stated as much - although the substantially part was purely me).

Being conservative their new price target is likely to be plus $1, but well shy of factoring in successful phase III trials. Also, none of this factors in any market activity (takeover and the like), which if occurring could see the sp realise full dcf value (+$2).

Note that I haven't looked at their assumptions in any detail as yet (let alone managed to see what c/flow they were anticipating) and envisage they will also be on the conservative side.

I would follow the first poster and say somewhere around $1.30.

Cheers
SBC