Maybe I have my numbers wrong, but if China was producing 83,000 tons of anode material in 2014, and they're multiplying capacity 6-fold from 2016 levels, then by 2020 they'll have the capacity to produce at least 498,000 tons of anode material (i.e 83,000 tons*6). If 90% of the anode material is natural graphite with 10% silicon, and 2 tons of natural graphite is required per ton of spherical/anode-material, up to 730,400 tons of additional natural flake graphite would be required for 365,200 tons of additional spherical output; in China alone!
So:
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 1 Chinese Anode Material (tons) Spherical/Synthetic Graphite Silicon@10% 2 2014 83,000 83,000 N/A 3 2020 >=498,000 448,200 49800 4 365,200 additional tons of spherical required
1. China may potentially need 730,400 tons of flake feedstock in three years; and
2. Syrah is producing 380,000 tons of flake with a fair portion already allocated to sales.
But according to the shorts, Syrah will struggle to sell all of its production? Syrah will have to increase production not curtail it!
Why are markets this inefficient to public information? It's obvious what's going to happen.
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