silex worth aud 63.86 per share, page-13

Already proven.

Par of the excitment is that GE are so confident now that they have had theirs hand on the technology for near 12 months that they hare greatly accelerating getting the first commercial production up and going. They have stated a time line that will have the test loop producing comercial quantities by 2009 and it will then be a matter of scaling up for demand which will be very easy to do for the SLZ process as opposed to the only other technolgy for enrichment (centrifuge).

Further USEC announced a few weeks ago that they were in trouble trying to build their version called American Centrifuge. Although the announcment was delivered with a positive spin what they really said was that their cost had blown out and that they still needed 2.3Billion but they only had 500 mil available so they would need more equity or a JV partner.

The problem they have with that and what the smart money has reaslised is that SLX technology is streets ahead both in substanially less capital cost to build, far far less to operate and is immensily more efficient. Given as i understand that GE the worlds largest company and supplier of a large chunk of N power stations with more to come. All of these stations need fuel rods to run them. GE already manufacture fuel rods from enriched u supplied by USEC.

It has suddenly dawned on the market that USEC whose existing ancient very inefficient Gas difusion technology which must be discontinued by 2013 are up the creek with out a paddle.

There biggest customer is going into business in opposition to them with a cheaper more efficient process. USEC will find it very difficult to attract a JV partner or further capital.

You have to do a mountain of research to even getting close to understanding this stock. One of the reasons that most players in the market let this stock slip buy. The price action is changing that and bring it to the attention of all and sundry who as yet have not got the time or the inclination to do the indepth research required.

Those of us who have and who try and understand where it is heading see the rise in price as just a small leg up to what will eventually be true value. It has a long way to go. The $68 valuation figure is still short of the mark in my book it is too conservative. Given that GE have said 2009 for first production i think that 2012 is a more reasonable time to use for full production.

As for a PE my take is that it should be quite high 30 + because of the exclusivity and fact that the enrichment market is a closed shop. You first have the to get the President of the USA to sign you off and instigate a N teaty with your own government before you enven start.

read the red stuff and ignore me dyor