Hi
@Royal_Viking,
Your figures are quite off the mark. - I wonder where you received them from?
The lowest cost producer of rock is well recognized to be that of Greenbushes and there is around a 30% chance that any lithium in a battery everyone comes into contact with will be from that mine. - Impressive!
From Go to Woah we are looking at a cost of +/-US$4500 per tonne of battery grade produced by them with that price going up if they include the hydroxide process.
Within that price there is no profit for the mine that ships to China, it is simply based on cost alone. - I gave a breakdown of this which found its way into another forum and was discredited and ridiculed.. I don't mind being ridiculed, nor having a bit of a dig at each other, though it is always disappointing to be ridiculed without an alternative perspective being laid out. - We cannot learn anything when the best comment to be made is that it looks like a school project.
By comparison to rock my understanding is that SQM is the lowest cost brine producer with costs ranging somewhere around US$2500 for a final battery grade - At the moment they are capped by the Chilean government but they have plenty just laying around ready should that change.
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I have found the movements of the partners in Greenbushes to be intreaging and
@airconditioner made comment of Albemarle and Tianqi during my sabbatical. - That Albemarle are not agreeing to expand Greenbushes and that they are off pursuing brine, however so is Tianqi also with their recent move into SQM. - Maybe the Chilean government can be persuaded to lift those caps with the right incentives?
I am interested to see what other moves Tianqi might have up their sleeves when it comes to moving into brine.
The competition as I see it will be trying to keep up with those lower cost brines as they ramp up production and potentially put a lot of rock explorers and suppliers that haven't derisked themselves out of business and picked up for a song to keep them that way.
Each move into brine is the circling of the wagons on rock stocks.
Galaxy have made a good step in supplying the market with Mt Cattlin whilst no one else can for quite some time. (*NMT acknowledged here also)
James Bay has been considered to be plugged in closely to a converter utilizing the benefits of local vertical integration to keep the costs down when the time comes.
Sal De Vida will derisk Galaxy in the long run allowing them to accumulate a larger bank balance which will allow them to take part in the acquisition of assets that cannot compete because of various factors.
There is no other lithium stock on the ASX that has the diversity and ability to derisk itself now or into the future.
Be careful of standing on only rocky ground.
This is one of my favorite photos related to lithium.
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The little yellow SQM truck says: "Come and get me hard rock producers"
You know
@Royal_Viking when I peer over the fence I have questions about the tantalum ROFR. - It appears to me that the ROFR has not been resolved. I really hope PLS can find a way to remove ALL of the tantalum before they attempt to export anything from Pilgangoora. My perception is that GAM were wise splitting that ROFR with MIN and have now seen what can be negotiated. - Testing the waters.. Wise move wouldn't you say?
