CYP

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21.0¢ cynata therapeutics limited

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35,472 Posts.

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25/02/17

11:18

Post #: 22900028
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Originally posted by ashc36 ↑

In my opinion as a long term holder i think management made the right call with the cap raise.
The fuji announcement was not what i was expecting. I was expecting an upfront payment with milestone payments and royalties, not an option to get this based on safety of the upcoming trial. It appears no one will sign until safety of the our cells is proven in humans. This is fair enough i guess as well as i would not pay upfront fee for a product that may not work.

With this mind the price after the fuji announcement may have got up to the 90's early but i have no doubt would fallen to low seventies soon after. It would have fallen even lower after as the market digests the news that no big deal will happen until safety proved. With no big news on the horizon and apceth taking their time, management decided to raise 6 million whilst momentun was good. I think this was smart as it may be until mid 2018 until fuji decide to take up their option with safety proven. Apceth will likely not sign until safety is proven either. 8 million in cash (fuji $4, existing 4) may not have lasted til then. It certainly would not leave much fat for work in other areas like heart attack and brain cancer. These are worth pursuing. A patient Paying around 20k to help treat brain cancer or reduce risk of a heart attack for those high at risk seems like a no brainer. 20k for treatment for asthma suffers that can use a cheap inhaler instead seems a bit inpractible. We cant rely on others to help fund this research when it seems obvious that they want safety proven. Not doing a cap raise would leave us with up to 1 and half years with no further work in these areas. Now that would be a dumb move. When safety is proven these areas will be ready for a deal in 2018 with more studies.

Thankfully the safety trial is this year. Boom or bust. Knew that coming in though. Recruitment may take to the middle of the year so im not expecting any announcement soon. The condition is quite rare so patience is required. Once the trial starts though results will be fairly quick. We may not get the official results for quite some time after as much analysis needs to be done but from other shares history the market price movement will likely indicate what they are. When the trial starts i expect plenty of interest as positive data will mean lots of deals. We should hopefully get back to $1 at least upon trial commencement. Safety data will i think will highly likely will be good based on the animal data so far but stranger things have occurred.

Technically it looks like 50 cents will be the next stop. There should be plenty of support here. Fuji paid about this. Fuji would not have forked out 3million usd and spent countless man hours on the option agreement if they did not think it would be worth it. They have done a stack of due dillengence. If its good enough for them it should be at least good enough for the market. Hopefully should rise from there.

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Good to hear others opinions.

However, if they had nothing to follow up, then they have just burnt a new bunch of SIs with the CR
Great for who? and now another overhang of 9m shares under water. (Dejavu from US placement)

We have yet to find out what their plan is, that's the major issue here. too much guesswork, when it should have been spelt out over last 5 weeks professionally and announced to ASX.

Damage done.

Last edited by Sector: 25/02/17

CYP Price at posting: 55.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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CYP BTFD, page-12

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