Mr Montgomery's Holdoing 2%, page-15

Well
I am not sure how you can even pretend to put a probability on a TO as you like us simply have no idea . It could be zero or 100% . I do agree though you don't buy on hope of a TO unless you are buying something were someone has a strategic holding.
I agree with you the bottom is likely to have been reached and I average down yesterday at 1.48. Average now 1.66 . My view is people get caught on the sentiment of insto selling following a weak result and it sucks all positivity out. People think AUs Super must be right. What people ignore is they were wrong to hold at 4 , so why are they right now. Seen it many times before , some recent examples were DOW and CWY with both having double following poor results 12-24 months ago .
So my view is the stock has been priced in a way that suggests the blip is eanrings is permanent and I don't think it is medium term . A while ago I read Seth klarmans book safety of margin and it outlined how insto selling can provide some of the best entry opportunities as for them its insignificant to returns whether they sell slowly or dump holdings and drop price another 20#. I agree the rerating may not be immediate but what we have here is a stock that is being priced for zero eanrings upside , thus the pendulum has swing to upside being far greater than downside from here