Measuring AGO share of the 62% IOprice.
Historically AGOs get about 24.3% of this. Taken from figures of last 3 yrs in the half yr report.
This yr could be less when comparing AGO's projected fines/dump ratio.
Initially contractors get 25% of the IO price rise.
So that total discount is not 50%. (100*.75=75*.75=56.25) It is 56.25% discount to the %62 IO price.
eg.If IO has risen from US66 to US90= 24 increase, then AGO gets 56% of 24=$13.44 increase.
On 12Mill tonnes=$162mill increase in gross earnings from last Qtr, if it captured all these rises.
But it lost 20mill on hedging last qtr and 20mill profit, 60 mill ebitda, so roughly 200mill ebitda estimate.
EV estimate roughly 200mill now.
EV/EBITDA roughly=1
These are just measurements with 100% tolerance levels.
