Ann: Receipt of Funds and Appendix 3B, page-12

I was interested to see how the market reacted to this foreshadowing any MtK convertibles.
138M shares issued dilutes the current 3.3bn shares on issue by 4% (and a theoretical SP revaluation by the same amount). The $5M incoming should increase the market cap by 1.4% ($5M/$338M) with a net effect of a SP fall of 2.6%. This presumes that the market had placed no value on the SP due to the warrants existence.
After the announcement the share price dropped from 10.2c to say 9.5c which is about a 7% drop.
So how much value had the market placed on the outstanding warrants? None of this adds up to me, except to say that the market had not fully priced in exercise of the warrants otherwise there would have been no fall. Of course the Lynas SP has been highly volatile on a day to day basis so 7% rises or falls is all in a days expectation!
What I'm trying to conclude is that if the Lynas SP increases to a point where MtK would exercise their convertibles then whenever they do it looks like there will be a significant drop in SP as the market does not seem to fully price in these liabilities.