Here's something for you to think about dude.
Q2 results:
Revenue $65m
Cash outflow $57.8
Lynas estimated cash outflow for Q3 is $58m. This isn't some made up number I plucked from thin air, like your numbers, this is the companies actual estimate from the Q2 cash flow report. Lynas cash outflow estimates have been consistently accurate however do not include debt interest payments, principle debt payments and AELB payments. https://www.lynascorp.com/Shared Do...and media/2017/170124 Appendix 5B 1637589.pdf
We have an idea what cash outflow for Q3 is going to be but what about revenue? Well let's see what the company has to say about that. Now keep in mind that Q2 revenue was $65m.
During the December quarter, demand for Rare Earth products, especially NdPr, has remained strong. There was some upward movement in market prices for Lanthanum (La) and Cerium (Ce) materials during the quarter, reflecting the intent of Chinese suppliers to recover profitability after experiencing severe profit reductions over the past 18 months. We expect demand to remain strong over the coming period and are hopeful the recent firming in price for La and Ce may also be reflected for other Rare Earth products.
In the March quarter, our priority is to obtain better value for our Cerium and Lanthanum products through adjusting our product quality to specific customers’ needs.
As noted in the Quarterly Report that was released on January 24, 2017, Lynas is now producing NdPr at design rates. In addition, in recent weeks, there have been some signs of improving trends in published market prices for NdPr. For the quarter ending December 31, 2016, the Company reported positive operating cashflow of A$5.0 million despite continued low prices for Rare Earth products. If the improving trends mentioned above continue, the Company currently expects its trend of improving results to continue in the quarter ending March 31, 2017.
As noted in the Company’s announcement dated 28 February 2017, in recent weeks, there have been some signs of improving trends in published market prices for NdPr. If the improving trends continue, the Company currently expects its trend of improving results to continue in the quarter ending 31 March 2017.
Now keep in mind total cash at end of Q2 increased slightly. With only 3 weeks left till end of Q3, I think it's extremely reasonable to assume Q3 results will be better than Q2.
CJ, still think total cash will reduce by $7m Q3 excluding the $5m from Mt K?
LYC Price at posting:
9.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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