VRC short term achievement summary, page-38

Yes, I don't disagree - its a race to the top. Those left behind today won't make it or will be swallowed up in any sector consolidation. The key thing to note is that if China has hit peak graphite and the move away from synthetic on environmental grounds accelerates, then east Africa collectively has one of the largest deposits ready to exploit.

However, you have a lot of groups in China that want diversified supply sources to mitigate being over reliant on group. The stand out risk with SYR is Mozambique - its risk premium is 19% on Damodaran's benchmark, which implies the possibility of political issues or the economy crumbling due to being under a sea of foreign - unhedged - debt. By contrast, Tanzania's risk premium is much lower around 12% and its economy is in better shape according to IMF reviews.

IMHO, the key driver of any recovery is going to be the resumption of off-takes and MOUs being signed, driven by the power utility storage market taking off then EVs plus expandable graphite for the building sector in China and Europe. The groups that get these deals inked and sort out funding will get through the chasm. At the margin, those groups that have carved out a niche, such as GPX's myopic focus on expandable graphite with two deep pocketed Chinese partners providing funding and off-take bundles, will thrive. Of all the g-stocks, it is the only one which hasn't bombed.