RGT 0.00% 32.0¢ argent biopharma limited

Peter King, page-16

  1. 569 Posts.
    Fair value for MXC and Aussie Medical Marijuana Companies is difficult at this stage, but you can use the Canadian experience as a lead, as they're a couple of years ahead of us here and we share many similar traits (Canada vs Aus is generally a well used comparison in business and government research). Sorry for the lack of detail below - short summation of research over the weekend.

    Users: In Canada, there's around 130k "subscribers", in total, to MM. Number has been steadily growing.
    Companies: 15+ companies, including some biggies, market caps from $1b+ down to a few in the $250m range. Also smaller ones of course.
    Supply: has been unreliable at times, and lacked choice.
    Share price: Big increases, of course, even before the pending general legalisation.
    Earnings: still pretty low, but they're there and increasing YoY.

    So - my thoughts are roughly:
    - If Australia follows Canada, we'd be looking at 100k+ patients in the next couple of years. Even with those few patients, there's still enough room in the market for many more companies than exist here at the moment.
    - Supply issues exist in Canada, where there's companies with large facilities growing already.
    - Lots of potential other uses, but even at the base level where we are at, it's potentially highly profitable.

    What's MMJ worth?
    Very hard to say...but if you take a look at the Canadian experience those companies, without significant earnings...are worth $250m...do the math.

    Further reading:
    - https://news.lift.co/supply-shortages-affecting-patients-increased-supply-expect-soon/
    - http://investingnews.com/daily/reso...cannabis-investing/canadian-marijuana-stocks/
 
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