I had a rough go at trying to work out potential revenue - a tough job given the amount of assumptions required, however this is my conservative estimate for the Australian market alone if you only factor in the app being used to treat dementia patients as well as young children (0-3 years):
Currently it is estimated approximately 320,000 babies are born p.a.
Assuming children up to the age of 3 are potential targets for the app, that gives a market of c. 1M.
It is currently predicted that over 400,000 people suffer from dementia in Australia alone, a number that is steadily increasing.
Combining these figures gives us a potential market of c. 1.4 million customers.
For the sake of the calculations lets assume a monthly subscription fee of $5 per customer (arguably a low estimate given how much parents are willing to spend on new borns and how much money the aged care/healthcare sector in Australia is worth).
Assuming the app is only able to capture (conservatively) 10% of the entire market in year 1, revenue would be as follows:
$5 * 12 months * 140,000 people = $8,400,000 revenue
Assuming a modest price/earnings ratio of 15, market cap would be c. $126,000,000, over 7 times the current market cap.
This would put the share price at around 20 cents.
Again these calculations are extremely basic , but they also don't include a whole host of potential revenue streams that are likely to be pursued, or the fact that the app can generate revenue outside of Australia.
Food for thought!!
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