why is the share price 18.88 and not 19.41, page-8

"Most small shareholders will have less tha 2,000 shares in Rinker Group and will get, on acceptance, A$19.50 a share."


Only a very small number of shares is represented by that type of shareholding. The latest annual report :

Size of Holding------#S'holders-----%----------#shares----------%
1 –---------1,000------45,402----47.4------21,743,322-------2.4
1,001--–----5,000------40,687----42.5------96,644,840------10.6
5,001-–----10,000-------6,445-----6.7------ 44,822,088-------4.9
10,001--–-100,000-------3,020-----3.2------58,196,854-------6.4
100,001 and over ----------150-----0.2----- 688,709,115-----75.7


Rinker was your original Buy-Hold-Accumulate stock all the way back from the CSR monthly Share Purchase Plan days. You typical shareholding is definitely > 2,000 and the typical cost base is low $3.50 from memory ? minus the 50 cent Capital Return of last year.

There will be no miracle AUD depreciation to improve the bid, therefore it all hinges on the timing of the transaction.

The two main groups of interest are :

1) The old-timers (see above) who will prefer a post June 30 settlement, giving them 18 months to do something with the money before they hand over CGT

2) Those who bought in the $13's in JUL-SEP last year who need 12 months for the CG discount.

Neither group can gain much by selling on market now, they get less money and realise their CGT liability far too early.
Perpetual fall into both 1) and 2) - large shareholding to start with (8%) increased to over 10% last year.

Therefore, once Cemex talk to Sevior and these details are sorted, PPT will accept and the rest will topple.

Thats my theory.