Morningstar $2.10 valuation, page-83

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dolcevita

30,279 Posts.

1822

27/03/17

22:42

Post #: 23662728
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Originally posted by stockrock ↑

"Well, I always expect a partnership announcement could be made at any time.

Because that's what MSB management have been saying for the 3 years during which I have followed the stock."

For somebody who seemingly follows this stock closely, that is a lazy swipe... bordering naïve.

"But a "4.8% discount"?
Not sure how you think that is relevant to anything.
Yesterday's closing price was $2.39.
By my calculations, the issue price of $2.00 is at a 16.3% discount to that."

They issued at a 4.8% discount based on a 15 day VWAP, which is quite conventional.

With the beauty of hindsight, you point to an issue at a discount of 16.3% because it closed at $2.39 on Friday.

However if the share price by chance closed at $2.00 on Friday.. then would you say they issued at market? Or if it closed below the placement price (which is common on a 15 day VWAP), would you say they issued at a premium?

Your answer would be no, because with a 15 day VWAP - the previous trading day's closing price is anybody's guess... and to compare that to a VWAP is conceptually flawed. You should know that.

You can't have it both ways @madamswer ... the large '16.3% discount' you point to in fact helped MSB place at $2.00. As the alternate outcome would be that the shares traded closer to or below $2.00 in recent times, which would in fact have resulted in a lower VWAP, and FURTHER dilution than they were able to achieve.

What was pointed out by another poster is that the market capital of MSB after today is the same as it was on Friday (give or take a mil).

So it might be fair to say that the market has received the placement relatively well.. or 'palatable' as you so put it.

With the cap raising out of the way, I suspect management will now conduct the interim read-out and expect an announcement end of this week or early next.

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Excellent analysis.

(Exhausting isn't it? That's the idea).

MSB Price at posting: $2.23 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $1.09		Change -0.055(4.82%)		Mkt cap ! $1.278B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.14	$1.17	$1.07	$7.283M	6.474M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
13	19153	$1.09

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.09	96360	21

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
13	19153	1.085
21	162051	1.080
26	194525	1.075
22	223631	1.070
12	144495	1.065

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.090	94717	22
1.095	106993	16
1.100	87594	14
1.105	139013	12
1.110	101116	10

Last trade - 15.26pm 19/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

MSB (ASX) Chart

Morningstar $2.10 valuation, page-83

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Morningstar $2.10 valuation, page-83

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