Reasons to expect a strong gold stock rally on the ASX for the balance of 2007 are:
Breakout from AUD$580 gold only occurred in Sep 2005 so we have only had two short rallies to date in mid - lower cap PM stocks during the whole gold rally. AUD gold price has now consolidated at current AUD $800+ levels for 12 months now. Many smaller cap gold stocks have been building their projects and have raised significant capital for drilling or mill refurbishment, progress has been strong yet many have yet to break out, value has been overlooked. Low valuation multiples even in larger cap ASX resource stocks leaves room for further appreciation. The larger stocks led the way to start and now many smaller caps have already taken off. Low sovereign risk angle here, stable government and safe investment climate - recognition of ownership rights to become an ever increasing issue as the metals gain value in all currencies. Greed and need will drive some Governments to do the wrong thing by miners in their unstable countries to the detriment of stockholders - but not in Australia as our sovereign risk profile is amongst the best on offer. I expect the imminent gold rally to pull global gold stocks with it as stage 2 of this bull market attracts a much wider audience and greater capital flows. Many more mainstream investors are now noticing gold and realizing this is not a flash in the pan as were the price rallies during the long 20 year bear market post 1980. The miners are profitable here at $820 so any price rise should leverage into greater profits and anticipated profits. Therefore a share price surge must follow. Should we get another breakout in the AUD gold price (currently $822) the local gold stock rally will be even stronger and I believe this is now on the cards as gold will now shoot ahead faster than our currency - which needs a breather now. The AUD has just jumped straight up nearly 8.5%, from just under 77c to over 83c against the USD since March 6th this year.
LHG Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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