@mal85 I like your banker's assessment on the investment. It is too early to pass judgement on the CAB decline rate but when holding expenses constant is does imply a decline in revenue growth. Maybe some of the other factors will turn out to more significant.
The main issue I have with you thesis is that as new information is plugged into risk factoring of the option value it simultaneously reprices the underlying security and this repricing is magnified.
The amount of new information we have received about Smart Plan is limited or insignificant compared to what we have received about RR. Why is this the case? Probably because the information isn't 'good' (yet!) in terms of investor risk factoring.
Remember this is a platform business and all the valuation multiples in world don't come into play until they can demonstrate that the platform is working.
Don't get me wrong, I really hope it works.
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