Next Thursday, 13th of April is the FMG's March Q Report.
IO Average for the March Q was US$84.82 / dmt.
Scenario 1: Realised price is 87.5% of Platts 62% CFR
At 170MT PA rate, total shipped in the Q is 42MT
Revenue: 84.82 x 0.875 x 0.92 (moisture) x 42MT = US$2868M
- C1: US$12.5 / wmt
- Shipping Cost: US$5.2 / wmt
- Royalty: US$4.95 / wmt
- Admin: US$0.32 / wmt
Total Delivery Cost: 12.5 + 5.2 + 4.95 + 0.32 =US$23 x 42MT = US$966M
Other cost: US$120M (Interest), US$20M (Exploration), US$80M (Capex)
Otherec Q we had working capital increased by US$385M, if half is reversed in March Q, +$190M
So money in the bank at the end of March:
US$1160M +2868 - 966 -120 -20 -80 +190 - 1000 (Debt Repayment) = US$2B.
Scenario 2: 85%, -US$75M
Scenario 3: 90%, +US$75M
Regardless we should see big numbers next Thursday.
DYOR.
Frank.
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