PMH 0.00% 26.0¢ pacmag metals limited

anyone done any homework, page-3

  1. 473 Posts.
    The current selling we are witnessing is a result of option holders selling down their PMH shares in order to pay up the 18cents so they can get entitlement to the PEN in specie distribution.

    Neil_WA has hit the nail on the head re: copper prices and the market action. I think his price target also is very realistic.

    It has become blatantly clear that PMH has stopped being a "trading stock" - the day traders seem to have abandoned it, and that is the reason why the stock can't manage a decent rally even off the back of very good news.

    There are a few things to keep in mind here, and the research report that will be sent to shareholders from DJ Charmichael is worth reading to remind you of these points:

    1. ANN MASON COPPER DEPOSIT

    Make no mistake about this. Ann Mason is a MASSIVE deposit, and was recognised by RESOURCE STOCKS magazine as one of the best exploration finds last year (CuDeco's find topped the list).

    Despite it being relatively low grade, there is so much copper in the ground, that the overall size compensates for this. The scoping study which was performed shows that even at copper of $US 1.50 /lb, the mine is economic.

    The reality is, that copper prices are never going to go back to their "long term averages" - higher base metal prices are here to stay. This does not mean that the current levels are the prices that will be sustained in the long term - once new supply comes back (3 to 5 yrs down the track), you can expect a moderate fall.

    The growth that is occuring in the emerging markets is nothing like that of the late 70s/early 80s. The growth that is occurring is almost like an industrial revolution, that has not been seen since the 1400s. It would be worthwhile doing some homework on that.

    My take on this whole situation, therefore, is that base metal prices will not revert to long term averages, but will be sustained at higher prices by the growth coming out of China, Russia, the rest of Asia, and not to mention that the growth THAT IS STILL YET TO COME out of India.

    I have visited India 3 times over the last 2 years, and whilst the growth that has occurred there is amazing, the country is still very defiicient in infrastructure, which will require an ENORMOUS amount of spending to get up to speed with the developing world. Once the Indian government embarks on this enormous infrastructure spend, a huge demand for base metals (copper, zinc and nickel) will continue to occur, supporting the current levels of demand coming out of China at the moment.

    This is not a 5 or 10 year horizon. This is a long term, sustainable appetite for base metals by emerging countries. We all know that there is only so much of our precious resources in the ground, so as demand continues to eat up supply, more and more lower grade copper, zinc and nickel deposits will need to be mined to meet this demand. Basic economic suggests that if it is going to cost a producer more to get the stuff out of the ground, then they are going to demand a higher price for it.

    Deposits like Ann Mason therefore, will become economic. Very economic.

    The company of PMH has recognised that the lower grade deposits impact on the project economics. I have spoken with Mike Joyce about this, and he indicated to me a while ago that they will be considering "block caving" the deposit, to get to the higher grade stuff first. As was indicated in the latest announcement on their 10% copper results, the company is undertaking a feasibility study into this.

    I suspect that this study will show that this method of mining will be quite profitable, and is likely to cause some interest by some of the bigger copper players out there (eg Xstrata, Phelps Dodge) to get on board.

    so Ann Mason for me, is a long term investment proposition, that has the potential to be a significant company making deposit.

    2. With respect to the uranium assets.

    People don't appreciate just how advanced the Sundance project is. There is enough work there to get a JORC resource confirmed with minimal time and fuss. PEN will be putting in the resources to make this happen.

    Sundance is located near two previously existing uranium mines, in a country that does not prohibit uranium mining. So in order to get their deposit up and running, will not be a major problem.

    so the big quetion is: how much uranium is in the grond? Judging by the high grade results (eg 0.24%, 0.83%), there is some serious potential for a decent uranium deposit.

    PEN will be raising the cash to the get project up and running, allowing PMH to focus on Ann Mason.

    The company has therefore taken a long-term, and strategic view, that is aimed at maximising value for shareholders. Unfortunately, it doesn't have a short term gratification for the day traders out there to run up the stock.

    The other point worth mentioning, is that the value of PMH's uranium asset sale is about $18million. last time I checked, the company only had a market cap of around $48m. So the market is basically valuing Ann Mason and all of PMH's other projects at $30m - which is ridiculous. Even the value of $20m on the uranium assets is conservative.

    So to cut a long story short.

    PMH is a medium-term value proposition. If you are happy to sit it out for 12 to 18 months, then I would be using this opportunity of weakness to soak up as much of the stock as you are prepared to risk capital for.

    I am personally adding to me holdings, and putting the share certificates in the bottom drawer.

    Unbelievably cheap value... but that is just my opinion, and I encourage you to do your own research and consider your own financial situation, as I am not in the business of giving advice.

    Cheers,

    PT



 
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