From ASX Announcement accepting 10 Mar 17 accepting MPVD proposal.
“Central’s ability to fully realise the opportunity presented by the east coast gas market shortage will
substantially depend on future appraisal and exploration discoveries, since
a majority of Central’s existing certified Proven (1P) gas reserves are dedicated to current gas sale agreements.”
Where are these gas sales agreements?
This was a pretty serious announcement so surely this is not a slip of the pen.
So…
Let’s Leave Dingo & Palm Valley out of this & say they can service the Brewer Estate long term agreement.
Then CTP share of 1p Mereenie reserves as per 2016 Annual report is say 60 PJ
View attachment 544824
And even subtracting the
5.2 PJ (Presold to Macquarie at less than $2.00/GJ), that should mean that more than
half of the remaining 55 PJ is dedicated to current gas sale agreements according to the above acceptance of the MPVD proposal.
At an east coast selling price GSA’s to the value of a minimum of $8.00/GJ this should mean that current gas sale agreements greater than 27.5 PJ or $216 Million have been entered into by CTP.
And…
Since the 50% CTP share of the Mereenie processing facility is about 8PJ/Year CTP should have enough 1p reserves at Mereenie to utilise their 50% of the full capacity of the onsite processing facility for about 7 years and the current CTP gas sale agreements will use all CTP’s available onsite processing capacity for at least 3 years.
If CTP and MAC ran the processing plant at full 47 TJ/day (Which it should be able to do) then most of the uncompressed 90 TJ/day of the NGP is taken up (Approx. 30 to PWC bound for Phosphate Hill + say 50 TJ/day = 80 TJ/day).
As far as I know the only load on the NGP is about 30 TJ/day so it is a total mystery where the abovementioned GSA’s are going to.
Have I made a mistake in my rough calculations or assumptions and/or am I missing an important announcement to shareholders on GSA’s ?
Regards
OGP
