Hey guys
I've been following AGO for a while now, I read the forums but never contribute so I thought I had better have some input.
I'm a 90% technical trader, I don't care too much for fundamentals as we all know markets are far more advanced than the information you read. Like the most of you, I want this stock to go up but I try not to take a biased approach. I'm not a holder.
Below is my analysis, most of this you probably already know:
Long term
Had we met more support around the 3c level (50% retracement), I would have confidence in the price turning back up. However, we're now kicking around the 75% retracement of the previous major range. A retracement of between 50-61.8% will often turn around. On the plus side, at least volume is contracting as price declines, it'll be interesting to see what happens around the 1.7c level
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Short term
As we continue to make lower troughs and lower peaks on the daily chart, I've noted each trough has a hammer preceding the up move FYI
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Sentiment
When backtesting, I found weekly price retracement entry with daily price retracement exit works best. I tested the recent rally and also the November 2007 rally as the stock crawled out of the ditch as it appears to be doing now.
Moving forward, I would like to see a couple of weekly up bars and a dip to provide an entry, remember this stock isn't going to be back around 5c level within a couple of weeks, it's never done that before and I doubt it will, I think conservative entries will present themselves, just expect to miss out on the bottom 10-20% profits.
Take what you want from this. Che
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