Hi Cmon & all, overall I'm waiting on the quarterly to see how close my thoughts pan out as for some of the reasons you've mentioned. Personally I think they need to get this debt situation in order for the June accounts to give a chance for some clean air for next FY. I continue to believe the bank is supportive and that mgt could have if they wanted pay at least some (maybe $2m) of the Oasis money back and then done a CR for the difference. I mean if that colorado mob can raise money anyone can. Having said that the fact they have not wanted to dilute at these levels is admirable however it does put pressure and focus away from the prospect, also the money is going towards increasing reserves and at some point that could be delayed if default is an issue.
Also I think this is a day trader/ ST market and has been for a while now and the 0.4 cents in a low O&G sentiment market is as attractive as a wet sock. The stock is basically illiquid and even if the asx side got excited the US holds it back and vice versa. The 200-1 ratio imo is too big and maybe they should at some point consol the asx and then rejig the US to 100-1 and give us some space for the stck to move. That won't be popular i guess.
I think the debt was caused by the NS infill drilling and has just been carried to the new asset. The problem was no hedging taken before the OP tanked and I'm surprised we aren't 100% hedged now after the last jump. Then it wouldn't matter what the price did and any upside to OP would only be realised on new and increased production which would minimise risk. Imo OP is going nowhere as oil is plentiful and even when it goes up the futuresare moving much and look range bound probably reflecting supply waiting to come on line. This is an updated chart I've been watching for my reference points
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The Feb Dakota production has been posted but Montana not updated yet. This is the gross production that I have but doesn't include Feb Montana or any Rainbow prodn and the other little ones. Source is the ND Gov and Montana publicly released reported production.
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These thoughts are a bit jumbled, I am thinking this qtr would be much the same as December and that the Apr-June will be better as wells will be more established after the cleaning operations and costs coming back in line with normal operations.
GLTA and my opinion and thoughts only.
cheers
