the up side is growing, page-4

Hi miningnut,

Yes they are, and thanks for asking. Got back from seeing them at half nine. They seemed settled. Pity I can't say the same for The Dockers!!! Now, if only the same thing can happen tomorrow to the Eagles!!!

The combined TEN /NINE (PBL) /ANZ shareholding is 58.87%.

I agree about the need for maintainable EBDA and the like. But, given FY03's deterioration in EBITDA, I can't quite see TMS organically reducing debt by much more than $4M during FY04. Interest expense is likely to be $2.5M given varying rates ranging from 4.9 -5.5 on the primary facilities and 10.9 on the overdraft.

Even if Global's revenue were to top $60M, I doubt that debt can be reduced by >$6M.

This means one of 7 things:
1)
significant one-off payments are still to be receipted (in respect of North Ryde and the USA exit) and these will be required in order to retire more debt;
2)
a further capital dilution exercise (followed by a share consolidation similar to AVV) will be needed;
3)
Global is privatised and carved up between PBL and TEN;
4)
SEV's assets are tipped in in return for some re-shaping of the current shareholdings (or conversely, a new vehicle is created into which SEV tips its OB assets, and TMS tips in its OB assets);
5)
a takeover eventuates from any of SSR or AVV (with AVV being the more likely);
6)
Global sweats its existing assets whilst disposing of OmniLab and DubSat and trying to bring debt down to the $30M mark (which last year I wanted TMS to return to in order to have a viable go forward position);
or
7)
TMS fails.

Of these, 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6 are the most likely, with 1 and 6 very likely (but not in sufficient value to bring debt back below $30M). In due course, therefore, AVV (ie: incorporating ISIS) and TMS are likely to get together, with TEN and PBL also controlling DVD production in Australia.

Already, through Wentworth & Associates, the connections are there. Also, AVV has a JV in place with Regency which just happens to be associated with Regency Productions in which (until recently) PBL held a significant stake.

All things considered, then, a share price trading range to 3 -4c may be possible in the next 2-3 months, but I doubt that it will again climb to (or above) 5c during the remainder of 2003.