As I said, even on a lower return on equity of say 20%, Fmg would still be a sound investment at $7.
But, out of the last 8 years only 2 years have had a return on equity of less than 29%.
The 8 year average return on equity was 42%, with the highest year being 68.5%
The worst year was 4%, the second worse was 13% (which is equal to westpac and 3% higher than Wesfarmers)
No doubt returns will fluctuate, but it will fluctuate both up and down, and I think being one of the worlds lowest cost producers, over time it should be pretty good average return, at least 20% in my opinion.
Am I saying pile 100% of your funds into a single commodity stock? ... No
I am saying that it would be a good place to own some equity as part of a mixed portfolio, and there is a good chance it will produce solid returns for you.
Its a simple business, with good management, and its shareholder focused.
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