plough, your gut feel is spot on, the offer is low, very low in my assessment.
Now it's evident those on this thread stating 4 to 1 is fair value must be TMR shareholders who do not want to see further dilution or alternatively, IBR holders who have all ready accepted the offer and are now trying to justify their decision.
As my numbers stand I will not be accepting anything less than 10 to 1:-
firstly from IBR's last quarterly activities report they have 117 million shares on issue, plus 14 million options all presently in the money. So on a fully diluted basis (assumes all the in the money options are converted) that’s 131 million shares. Now IBR has $9 million cash in the bank and the conversion to ordinary shares of those outstanding in the money options adds another $5 million cash, total $14 million in cash. Take IBR’s last sale price 97 cents (you can’t use that b..s.. bid price which the market itself is “heavily” discounting) times 131 million shares equals $127 million market cap, less the $14 million in cash equals net $113 million, divided by 4 million ounces of gold equals $28 per ounce. So let me get this right, IBR directors believe they have 4 million ounces of gold and are willing to sell it all for $28 per ounce?? This is giving it away, especially for a gold company funded into production, no wonder TMR is so keen.
secondly, crunching some further numbers, from the above point, $127 million market cap, less the $14 million in cash equals net $113 million, less $25 million for existing mine development (a figure directors previously put on it) and say less a further $10 million for new plant and equipment (that would be conservative) equals net $78 million divided by 4 million ounces of gold equals $20 per ounce. For a gold company funded into production - what an absolute bargain TMR is picking up.
It's 10 to 1 for mine, otherwise I am happy to remain a minority shareholder. I believe further significant upside to IBR will come as gold production ramps up and you never know if TMR leave it long enough, those of us left standing might get better than 10 to 1.
Time is now against TMR, and the more work they do on developing IBR assets the more they will have to eventually pay to take out those left standing.
Cheers to all the long term holders.
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