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09/05/17
12:56
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Originally posted by Jehosephat
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Hi Noor444
I can emphasise with your post. About a decade ago I also waded into the market full of optimism and insufficient knowledge. One investment was OneTel, which had solid supporters in Packer and Murdoch and seemed to have a good business plan. As it went down with the weight of its debt, I bought in and lived to regret it. Pasminco was another one. It was a difficult conversation with my wife and only made good by a timely investment and quick sale of shares in Globe. I kept out of the market until last year.
Unlike some of the turkeys I bought back then, I remain confident that POS will perform in time. I believe its fundamentals are strong and is way undervalued at less than 5c at the moment and could double that or more once the gold tailings deal is implemented and the KDR deal goes through. I would agree with some other posters, who have recommended that you hold onto them so that you can recover more of your investment and perhaps make a profit by year's end. I would suggest that you also make sure that your wife's on board with your strategy, so that you can face it together.
For some time, there have been few posters on the POS thread and most have been full of negativity. Unlike some of them, I believe the board is doing a good job of steering the company in difficult times. I've refrained from participating until now.
When considering your next move, I would like to explain the positive fundamentals of POS, as I see them. The presence of Andrew Forrest on the share register isn't one of them. By the way, I wouldn't be angry with him. He can't influence the Ni price and he's hurting as much as other shareholders.
Instead, they are -
* the likelihood of an upswing in the Ni price. Mining is a cyclical activity and we're at the bottom of the cycle at the moment. The price has always recovered in the past and it will again. Patience is key. The next upswing will be driven partly by an prolonged explosion in demand for batteries for electric vehicles, household storage and grid backup. Although most of them are called lithium batteries, nickel is commonly another ingredient.
* POS has two good mines and valuable processing plants to go with them.
* POS is not burdened by debt and will be cash-flow positive as payments for the gold tailings deal start to flow and the deal with KDR for the refurbishment and use of the POS processing plant gets taken up. Those funds will allow POS to keep going until the nickel price turns around. The economics of the POS mines could also be assisted by the cobalt that also is apparently there.
* and then there is the possibility of valuable lithium deposits. Their size and value still needs to be assessed by the company, but we should learn more this year.
The present share price doesn't reflect the fundamentals of the company. It reflects the impatience of some shareholders with the nickel price and the uncertainty over the KDR deal. Because the market for POS is relatively thin, a few shareholders leaving the list can have a big effect on the share price. But I think that will settle soon and the price will return to a fairer value for the stock. If the KDR wins its legal action, that would likely cause a spike in POS, which could provide a better exit point if you want to go that way.
With a family and a roof over your head, you're blessed. Keep that in mind. This stuff is just froth and bubble.
Best wishes
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Thanks Jehosephat for these very sound advice and for sharing your experience with us. It tells me that all hope is not lost. My wife knows that I invested all our savings in POS. She is not a computer person and never gets involved with the money side of things. I told her a few days ago about the dire situation. She was quite shocked. But she must have seen that I was quite affected by this and did not apportion any blame. She is one of the rare persons I know who is not interested in money. As you and many others have suggested, the best strategy for now is to stay put and this is what I am going to do.
Thanks very much for your kindness.