AJX 0.00% 1.0¢ alexium international group limited

Thread for shareholder questions for Dirk and Bob, page-14

  1. 1,965 Posts.
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    Good post, but a couple of things I would like to make comment upon.

    1. I have a problem with the possibility of Alexium joining the ranks of 1PG and the like. There are massive differences. 1PG and virtually all those companies like NOR, ZIP, RFN, CVT to name a few, that rose to giddy, silly heights on nothing but hopes and dreams all fell back on zero revenue growth (mind you from zero revenue to begin with). AJX is completely different.

    2. In the past few years I have changed my investment strategy to find companies that are on the verge of a re-rate based off three criteria: continual revenue/cash receipts growth, becoming and maintaining cash flow positiveness, and initial dividends. Over the years I have found by using these criteria I can find companies that will undergo a sustained re-rating (and be under little threat of a SP crash). But only recently have I introduced TA into the equation ... so the SP must have started a uptrend on increasing volume. Funnily enough, using these criteria I would never have invested in AJX in the first place. I love a good story and when I first invested in AJX the story was all there was really. I had also invested in 1PG, NOR, CVT and a few other companies with seemingly compelling stories. And those company's fate compelled me to change my investment strategy. Thankfully, I sold out of all those companies before the roof fell.

    But anyway, I am invested in a few companies that underwent a re-rating simply because of revenue/cash receipt growth. One of those companies went to a $1b MC and has maintained that MC and is now profitable (on silly valuations but still holding because it is still in an uptrend.). This is the stage where AJX is now. Unfortunately, sentiment in AJX is bad so I don't think a re-rating is likely BUT the point is if the market is forward looking this is when a re-rating probably should happen.

    Yet the market isn't always as forward looking as we get told because of the uncertainty whether the increasing revenue can equate to profit in the long term. And I think this is where AJX finds itself (coupled with sentiment)

    I have no doubt a serious re-rating will occur when AJX shows itself to be in a sustained cash flow positive state. A few months ago I bought a company that entered this phase. This company has grown its cash receipts from 88k to 5.6m in two years and the last 4C had a positive cash flow of $1.6m. This company is undergoing a serious re-rating. And is still valued less than AJX. This state gives the market more certainty hence why I think AJX will undergo a serious re-rating that could takes few years to unfold when this happens.

    I think my point is that I wouldn't use financials at this stage to justify the value of the company. If the market had faith that AJX will be soon profitable and cash flow positive the MC would be considerably higher simply because the rate of growth going forward is potentially significant. I could justify a MC double current. I just think the market needs evidence. When that evidence comes then AJX will undergo a major re-rating.
    Last edited by juneauquan: 14/05/17
 
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