Hello All
Second post so naysayers attack at will but here is a theory which I think needs to be in play.
Take over bid in the short term of circa $1.50 to $1`.70. Yes call me crazy! But only a theory and WHY!?
1) FW holds 13.2% and with his cronies i.e. family, friends, board members most likely controls perhaps up to 20% of this business. Like any of us holders suffering they too are suffering a significant loss at the current close price 0.295c (On paper)
2) Blackrock - Not known as a shorter,only investor has been accumulating over the past 6 months and has recently become "Substantial" (Perhaps watch out for another Change in Sub holding in their favor in a day or two)
3) Santalis is in phase 3 trials and has numerous phase 2 trials plus numerous patients for other treatments using Sandalwood oil.
4) Regal has recently exited this company, was a "Substantial" holder and the only holder who made public they would not support a takeover less than $2.00
So, call me crazy bit here is the theory!
1) FW with Blackrock ,we shall see in a few days time with a updated announcement hold 30%. The volume has been that significant that surely not only shorters have been covering, Blackrock accumulating is my guess.
2) Hypotheses is that Santalis moves from one stage 3 phase thru FDA approval and a number of phase 2 progress to phrase 3. This will value Santalis as an IPO circa $500mil USD in less than 12 months. DYOR, plenty out there of other phrma's gone IPO in this regard.
3) A takeover from a third party (possibly from Dubai Investment Corporation, who is already in bed as a grower investor)
Considering the above a third party would need to invest $460mil AUD to take over the remaining circa 70% at $1.70 per share in collaboration with FW and Blackrock. Chicken feed for those boys. That is purely for asset only, not considering cash in hand or future EBITDA.
Should Santalis be successful with even 50% of its trails in 12 to 18 months then history can tell you IPO of $500mil USD is very achievable. Give or take that equates to Quintis PTY LTD being purchased for almost zero $$$ within 18 months from going back into private hands should the company offload Santalis at that kind of price.
To me that sounds like a very good deal if I had a few Billion in the bank to invest
Interested to here from the naysayers more than anything but this theory may come to light by Tuesday/Wednesday this week with change in substantial holder announcement. By end of next week I shall be proven right or wrong on this theory even without a T/O offer change in substantial holders could be very relevant.
Good luck to all holders. Only a theory and IMO
