SP targets, page-14

It's interesting to speculate on where the SP may go under 2V success scenario's, but that also requires speculation on what is considered success.  Is it just a flow rate above the indicated threshold of 100-150 bopd?  Or does it also include a reclassification of prospective resource to contingent reserve around the Franklin Bluff acreage?  Also, what is the investment strategy of current holders? How much of the register is held by traders looking to sell on news?  How much is held by instos that are content with a 100% return for their investors? How much is held by LTH's who will seize the first opportunity to free carry? Or to realise some significant gains?  And what of those on the sidelines waiting to jump in?  Will they just buy or will they attempt manipulative tactics to stage their entry? All too hypothetical for me to 'compute'.

But the SP will be important.  It will directly or indirectly influence the nature of our next steps.

IMO, with 5.2b shares outstanding (fully diluted), the BoD would like a decent SP to facilitate future necessary funding options without significant further dilution.  I would think that post 2v success (an assumption), a minimum to move the project further would be approx US$50m or A$65-70m.  This would allow a minimum of 2-3 further appraisal wells for delineation of HRZ and confirmation of at least one of Alpha, Bravo or Charlie.  That may not be enough to complete the job, but it would be a significant advancement. To keep the implied dilution of this next stage to 10% or less, we would need an SP of at least $0.15 (to then allow a slightly discounted CR). It may well be that a JV is pursued to move this project further, but the quality of that deal will depend on the quality of a self funded alternative (as an option) that the company could afford.

Let's not forget that 2V success (whatever that is) just confirms that we are at the beginning of the race.  The race to cream the curve based on proven value in the ground.  That race needs to be well funded.  While the market response will be a major determinant of how this is done, IMO it behooves us to remember that we are all constituents of that market.