Cairn AGM CEO's statement, page-31

STH my take on current value of FAR accords more with Malcy's estimate, as follows:

CNE quote a NPV of $US6.50 ($Aus 8.44) per barrel at $US50 oil for SNE (at FID 2018/19), and a NPV of $US12.50 per barrel ($Aus 16.23) at $US70 oil.

With the current 5.462B shares issued and the 96M barrels of oil net for Far.

So for SNE @ $US6.50, say a discounted $Aus7 x 96M/5.462B = 12.3 cents per share.
So for SNE @ $US12.50, say a discounted $Aus15 x 96M/5.462B = 26.3 cents per share.

This doesn’t take account of

• any unexplored reservoirs, of which the Annual Report estimates there are 1.5 Billion barrels over and above SNE, and not including FAN1.
• Nor does it account for the results of the SNE VR1 well which has added oil from the thicker sands to the 96M barrels
• the Gambian acreage (Far 80% WI – looks quite prospective continuation of SNE)
• the Guinea Bissau acreage (Far 19.28% WI)
• the $80 M cash just raised (value = $80M/5.462B = 1.5 cents per share)

that need to be ascribed some cents per share value.

Suggest at least double the current 96M barrels of oil net for Far for SNE needs to be applied to account for these additional factors.
So for SNE @ $US6.50, say 2 x 12.3 cents per share = 24.6 cents per share.
So for SNE @ $US12.50, say 2 x 26.3 cents per share = 52.6 cents per share.

So north of these values is my estimate of the value for FAR.