Ann: Change in substantial holding from CGF, page-19

I would bet on Vodaphone over Optus.

Vodafone would have to offload NZ due to competition concerns in fixed line (they are No2 and No3 in NZ by a clear margin), but they could spin it out to get some cash. Vodafone have said they want to increase fixed line in Aus, it would be a good long term strategic play and they have plenty of money. The two have very complementary strengths, there was talk months ago about Vocus making a play for their mobile operations, nicknamed VoVo, but obviously Vocus cant do it with a SP and debt the way they are. However its also said Vodafone dont like partners, so it would still likely be the end of Vocus rather than some sort of merger.

Optus would have competition concerns in Aus, and i just dont think it would get approval.